While economic growth in many markets has been low, relatively low inflation and falling interest rates have meant net interest margins have largely held or been maintained. This resulted in 2024 global technology growth being in line with forecast expectations, reaching $273 billion in 2024, with the European market slightly weaker than expected but compensated by higher growth in Asia-Pacific. The global budget outlook for 2025 is slightly higher than previous forecasts, with spending set to reach $290 billion in 2025.

This positive outlook is set to continue in 2026, with global technology spend expanding 6.3% in 2026 (compared to a Celent 2024 forecast for 2026 of 5.6%). This will be driven by strong growth across all regions, although North American banks will see the strongest growth. Spend growth is being driven by two key drivers: first, a continued focus on improving operational resilience and IT security, and second, a desire to improve pace and capabilities around product/service innovation.

Leveraging primary insight from Celent's Dimension Program, this report presents the outlook for technology spending by retail banks up to 2030, highlighting key findings from Celent's Dimensions IT Spending Forecast Model 2025. The scope covered is IT spending by service domain, looking at how retail banks are allocating spend across the front, middle, and back other, including areas such as account management, operations, digital channels, marketing, and risk. The report analyses at global and regional trends.

Note this report is Celent's Q1 2025 Edition on this report. Following the post-tariffs changed economic landscape, this report has been updated with a separate Q2 2025 Edition.

Please see report Dimensions: Retail Banking IT Spending Forecasts by Domain 2025–2030 - Q2 2025 Edition: Post-Tariffs Updates for latest Celent forecasts.