Editor’s Note: The following article is part of a series exploring how the evolving novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, upcoming policy changes, and employer dynamics have and will impact payer enrollment mix. In Part 1, "The Post-Pandemic Payer Mix: What Happened and What’s Next?” we reviewed how COVID-19 impacted the payer enrollment mix relative to projections. Now we’ll look at how upcoming shifts in policy and evolving employer dynamics may impact payer enrollment mix in 2022 and beyond.

The healthcare insurance market has shown resiliency throughout the last year and a half, especially as employment levels have fluctuated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As we detailed in Part 1 of this series, despite over 10% national unemployment during the summer of 2020, the uninsured rate actually declined as the newly unemployed retained employer coverage, enrolled in Medicaid, or purchased Affordable Care Act plans. In other words, COVID-19 has caused only modest disruption to the way US residents receive health care.

That’s not to say that the health insurance market will remain as stable in the coming year and beyond: multiple regulatory and legislative changes, as well as evolving approaches to employer-sponsored health insurance may cause shifts in payer enrollment mix.

A variety of federal and state-level policies will influence the availability of health coverage options and how expensive these options are to members. Aggregated near-term policy impacts suggest an increase in ACA membership, a decline in Medicaid enrollment and the uninsured population, and the continuation of employer group member attrition.

This article is courtesy of Oliver Wyman. The entire article can be reached at this link.