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Climate, Crypto, and Competing In This Cycle: More Cause for Optimism than Concern

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2022/04/18
Patricia Hines

An Oliver Wyman Report

For the past several years, Oliver Wyman (OW) has partnered with Morgan Stanley (MS) on their annual report discussing the wholesale banking industry. In this year's edition, OW/MS see the wholesale banking industry having passed through two cycles over the past decade: reform and restructuring from 2012-2019 and volatility-fueled growth from 2020-2021. The fundamental question facing the industry now is what the next cycle will hold.

The latest report, Climate, Crypto, and Competing in this Cycle: 2022 Oliver Wyman Morgan Stanley Wholesale Banking Report, discusses the uncertainties that wholesale banks face in 2022 along with the six market shifts that will support revenue and returns over the next three years. In addition, banks must take advantage and purposely face two major disruptions on the horizon: Climate Transition and Digital Assets.

The six market shifts that OW/MS believe will support wholeale banking revenues are:

  1. Corporate demand
  2. Rates normalization
  3. Private markets demand
  4. Macro volatility
  5. Commodities volatility
  6. China wholesale opportunity

OW/MS place a high premium on execution over the next few years, regardless of the outlook scenario that unfolds. The revenue environment during the pandemic provided welcome cover for an industry with significant economic challenges. The good news is that the next cycle should create opportunity for wholesale banks of every stripe to grow revenues and sustain returns well above the 2012-2019 lows. Execution, as opposed to legacy business models or home markets, will increasingly define the leaders and laggards.

In discussing execution, OW/MS sees five critical areas of focus and opportunity for leadership teams:

  1. Defending the client franchise
  2. Deploying resources rapidly to new opportunties
  3. Sustaining investment in efficient technology and operations
  4. Crafting a powerful narrative for clients and investors
  5. Winning the competition for talent

Wholesale banks face great uncertainty as we head into 2022, but OW/MS see more cause for optimism than concern in the coming three to five years. Download the report, Climate, Crypto, and Competing in this Cycle from Oliver Wyman.