Analyst's Point of View
From Senior Analyst Gareth Lodge
Three Down, One to Go
With just (just?) SIBOS to go, I've now done three different conferences (Commercial Cards & Payments, AFP, and BAI Retail Delivery) and three very different cities (London, Miami Beach, and Washington) in the last three weeks. But some similar themes seem to have run across all three events. These are, in no particular order:
Data -- whether Big, customer-centric or lacking -- was part of every conversation. Only the Commercial Card people thought they had it both sorted and a unique selling point until one panelist (me) told them they hadn't, while the customers felt they had a distinct lack of data. My take-away and advice to clients has been data without purpose or context is just that -- data. Understanding how the data is or could be used and improving that process is going to be where people can make a difference.
Not only is there growing concern that the deadline will be impossible to meet (one can only assume that a fair proportion of the people who asked about the penalties for missing the deadline are unlikely to meet it), there is a growing belief that the rules could touch on some commercial transactions, and may be extended to cover commercial transactions under a certain value.
Changing competitive boundaries
Whether it's vendors creating new payment networks, vendors merging or acquiring, or existing networks being perceived to be muscling in on their partners' business, there is plenty of potential game-changing action going on. I'd predicted some of this a few years ago with my crystal ball, but I hadn't figured so much change in such a short period of time.
As a European, I had to resist the urge to say, "Welcome to our world." But the US people I spoke with believe they've entered a new era. Opinions varied far and wide, but all agreed on two words: more, soon.
SIBOS is this week, and some if not all of these themes are already occurring in my pre-briefings.
What was interesting about these last three events, and so far holds true about SIBOS, is that there have been no big announcements and far fewer announcements overall. Watch this space--after Sibos in Vienna in 2008, and what unfolded during that week, we certainly know anything is possible!
P.S. Celent is currently accepting nominations for our Sixth Annual Model Bank Awards. To nominate an individual or firm, fill out the entry form at http://celentmodelbank.com by November 30, 2012.
Chart of the Month
From the Celent report State of Consumer RDC 2012: The Death of Desktop.
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