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Fixed Income in China: The Primary Market

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6 July 2010
Hua Zhang

Abstract

The Chinese bond market grew dramatically in 2009, due to the Chinese government’s economic stimulus package. However, there was a slight decline in central bank bills; the subordinated debt issued by commercial banks amounted to US$39.2 billion, a nearly three-fold increase over the same period of the previous year.

The Chinese bond market is multilayered and includes the interbank, stock exchange, and over-the-counter markets. In a new report, Fixed Income in China: The Primary Market, Celent examines the market size, structure, underwriters, and market trends of the Chinese fixed income market.

The bond issue forecast for 2010 is as follows: US$321 billion Treasury bonds, US$220 billion financial bonds, US$701 billion central bank bills, and US$80 billion corporate bonds. The banking industry has the largest share of the bond underwriting market in terms of absolute figures. Presently, joint venture securities brokers (CICC, China Galaxy Securities, and UBS Securities) are performing well; among the top five bond underwriters in 2009, three are joint venture securities brokers.

“Bond products in the Chinese market will become more diverse, and there will be more types of Treasury bonds as the country strengthens its benchmark position,” says Hua Zhang, analyst with Celent’s Asia Research Group and author of the report. “In the short term, more central bank bills will be issued to control inflation. Corporate bonds and debentures will also see rapid growth.”

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