A New Black Swan
So the latest Black Swan was spotted in the last few days in the UK when the outcome of the Brexit vote took everyone by surprise. While many are still trying to make sense of the whole situation and figure out what it means for the future, the only thing that is certain at this moment is there will be a lot of uncertainty in the coming weeks, months and possibly years.
In question is the constitutional and political arrangement of the United Kingdom and broader EU, but how is it going to impact the financial services industry? The future of the “bank passport” that allowed financial institutions to do business easily across Europe will be a topic of much interest. Restrictions in ease of doing business might result in them moving out of the UK, and some have already started the process. This would not only result in shifting (if not loss) of banking jobs, but could also balkanize the markets. Technology requirements, for example hosting of data centers within national jurisdictions, could similarly balkanize operations. This would also impact adoption of centralized operations, like cloud services, and slow down the growth of start-up culture and innovation. Balkanized operations and restricted market access would deter or slow down smaller players in designing and launching innovative solutions, and help larger incumbents.
Then there is the question of pan-European regulations and initiatives like Target2 Securities. T2S entailed firms with significant European presence to restructure their operations across Europe. While UK never decided to join the T2S project, firms with European operations were so far busy designing their optimal operational mix within continental Europe. If the UK vote now requires further restructuring that may force them to rethink their current plans and impose additional resource constraints. Also of interest would be the LSE-DB merger; even though both parties have said the deal is not threatened by the vote, politicians might have other ideas.
The political negotiations in the coming weeks would therefore be closely watched as market participants look to navigate their way through the latest developments. All in all the level of complexity and uncertainty in the system has suddenly grown manifold. All blame the Black Swan.