The Implications for the Global Financial System
Abstract
A paper from Oliver Wyman. First published on 4th March 2022.
The invasion of Ukraine has triggered a coordinated policy response that will have ramifications across the globe. The first priority has rightly been a human one: concern for, and outreach to, those directly affected by the unfolding humanitarian crisis.
This paper from our parent, Oliver Wyman, focuses on the implications for the global financial system and the firms, policymakers, and regulators within it. We are seeing a crisis unfold that has far reaching implications all participants in financial services. The financial system is at the heart of the response: as a transmission mechanism for sanctions being imposed; as a locus of the economic impact of the crisis; as a dynamic ecosystem that will evolve in response to structural change.
For a discussiuon on the resulting technology implications from the crisis, register for Celent's Innovation & Insight event here where we have added a panel discussion together with our colleagues at Oliver Wyman.
Table of contents
First-order impacts
1. Risks from managing a fast-moving and complex sanctions environment
2. Tough decisions on onshore Russian footprint
3. Challenges in liquidating or managing existing holdings of Russian securities
4. Credit exposure to the Russian economy, and broader contagion
5. Heightened cyber threats, requiring elevated defenses
Second- and third-order impacts
6. Disruption and divergence in macroeconomic outlook
7. Energy security at the fore, driving an uncertain path to net zero
8. Fragmentation in global market infrastructure
9. Development pathway of crypto, stablecoin, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)
10. Geopolitical reset with potential to reshape the policy environment
