One of the job functions of an analyst is being asked to predict the future and no more so that in this current economic climate. As the year end approaches, I am being asked this question on a daily basis. The question usually masks a certain amount of personal concern about how 2009 might turn out.

Anecdotally, from conversations and interactions that we are having, there is some belt tightening, some teeth sucking, and grimacing all around. But as yet, we have not seen massive slashing of 2009 budgets.

In a recent poll of insurers (October 2008), we asked about the impact on IT investments in the current climate. The chart below summarise the results. It’s heartening to see that for most insurers, business cases are being revised or spend re-prioritised. For a handful, there is no impact. Admittedly, as the year progresses and as economies around the world appear to slide into deeper trouble, this data may seem out dated.

So as the financial news changes daily, as new presidents are inaugurated, and current prime ministers grapple with the limits of Keynesian economics in a global downturn, Celent will continue to keep a beady eye on IT spend and budgets. As a team, we are in the process of collecting data from CIOs from the across the globe as I type. We’ll have more quantitative data at the year end in our regional CIO survey reports. Watch this space for the update.